“The political earthquake on January 3, 2008 in Iowa, America’s Buck-Eye state resulting from the Democratic Party Caucus may have generated an Obama Tsunami.” These were the words of Keisha Morrisey a life long Harlem resident and former candidate for the New York State Assembly in 2002 and New York City Council in 2003.
Former candidate Morrisey, now a boxing and fighting sports reporter and public relation professional popularly referred to in the boxing game as El Boxing Empress” predicts that an Obama Tidal Wave will overtake the walls of the Black political gate keepers and drown conventional wisdom.
Ms. Morrisey was among a group of her hip-hop generation peers who watched the unfolding Iowa caucus results in a private venue. Morrisey said, “Well I guess that the results in Iowa answers the question about the impact of the Oprah factor and also settles the question as to the prospect of new young voters turning out at the polls.”
The decisiveness of Senator Obama’s victory over Senator Clinton and the rest of the field of impressive Democratic Party political timber in all demographic categories suggest that a paradigm shift may have occurred. Moreover, there is an emerging sensibility in virtually all segments of society that a Black America can in fact be elected. Accordingly, many analogies are being advanced to rationalize, justify and predict the probability of Obama’s ultimate victory.
Author and political analyst Gary James said, “Presidential candidate Barack Obama is a Black Swan.” James was referencing a recently published book entitled “A Black Swan” written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A Black Swan as defined in the book is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. For example, the astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11.
James said, “The profundity of black swans is that they change the way people look at the world. Black swans underlie almost everything about the world from the rise of religions to current events. The Obama Black Swan analogy is an unfolding phenomenon that may ultimately and substantially settle some outstanding social and political questions relative to race in America.”
James continued, “It is often posited by some Black folk that white America refuses to deal with the ‘race question’ or white America would never elect a Black man to be President of the United States. However, as a practical political matter the results of the Iowa
Democratic Caucus, with its 96 percent white population may have spoken without equivocation for white America at large.”
What appears to be emerging is an Obama national intergenerational grassroots political movement with far reaching impact particularly as it relates to the future of conventional Black political leadership and civil rights orthodoxy. Should Obama win in New Hampshire and Michigan his campaign would have transcended the realm of political probability and entered the dimension of political quantum physics which may potentially transform America and the world.
The formidable Clinton political machine may be outmatched by the new political mathematics heralded by the ubiquitous Barack Obama organic movement. Should the Obama political phenomenon continue to crescendo until Super-Tuesday on February 5, when New York and other big states hold their primaries, a new political dispensation may merge with the unfolding first decade of the 21st century.
Whatever the outcome of the titanic battle for the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination between the forces of the Clinton and Obama political machines, Americans and in deed the world are riveted to the process and any conceivable end result is at this point mathematically possible.
In any scenario, New York politics particularly relative to the Black community will forever be changed following the February 5 ‘Super Tuesday’ primary election. While most prominent Black elected officials and the civil right leadership have lined up behind the Clinton political machine, there is an emerging groundswell of Obama support being crystallized by a list of elected officials lead by New York State Senator Bill Perkins and the grassroots community inspired by Rev. Conrad Tillard.
Longtime political activist Alton Chase said, “Current anecdotal information suggests that the New York Democratic primary election is a dead heat between Clinton and Obama. Should Obama win decisively in New Hampshire as his 10 point lead in the New Hampshire poll indicates that New York may be the last stand for the Clinton political magic.
James concluded, “The Obama 21st century campaign strategy is based on an eyes and ears approach, while the Clinton strategy is organized around the traditional mouth and hands campaign style… Now will the real first Black American President of the United States please step forward.”
CONTACT: Gary James
ConsultingGary@netscape.net
(Photo courtesy of Eddie Goldman)
