TSS Prediction Potpourri
By Robert Mladinich
Does the champion come in with more confidence and the knowledge that he stopped his foe once and can do it again? Or is JT going to come back with fire and fury and finish what he started in the second round of the first fight?
Although there is no title up for grabs in the Saturday rematch between Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik and Jermain “Bad Intentions” Taylor, there is still a lot on the line for both fighters. The last time they met, in Atlantic City on September 29, Pavlik survived a brutal second round knockdown to come back and stop the favored Taylor in the seventh round. In doing so, he won the undisputed middleweight championship. Should Pavlik, 32-0 (29 KOs), Youngstown, Ohio, beat Taylor, 27-1-1 (17 KOs), Little Rock, Arkansas, in the rematch, he will be on the cusp of superstardom. Pavlik is currently a 2-1 favorite to beat Taylor for the second time. Pavlik has already garnered, among other things, a feature story in Sports Illustrated. For that magazine to dedicate so much space to a fighter means the fighter has arrived.
Although the last bout was fought at 160 pounds, this non-title affair will be contested at 166 pounds. Who or how that will benefit either fighter is the subject of much conjecture. One thing that nearly everyone agrees on is that there will once again be a knockout. Here is an objective sampling of what 21 boxing insiders had to say about this eagerly anticipated matchup, which will be held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas and televised on HBO Pay-Per-View:
Tim Smith, New York Daily News: “What Pavlik does, he does very well. He throws a good one-two punch, but Taylor is the better all-around fighter. He can do a lot more things than Pavlik. The only reason Taylor didn’t stop Pavlik the last time was because he was out of shape. The shock of losing should force him to get into good shape this time, and he should stop Pavlik around the fourth round.” Taylor by stoppage.
David Diaz, WBC lightweight champion: “I think Kelly has Jermain’s number। He (Pavlik) got a little careless in the first fight। He tried to show he could take a punch and got caught। He won’t make a mistake like that again। Unless Jermain comes with a completely different style, which I don’t think he can do, Kelly should stop him between the eighth and tenth rounds.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Nick Charles, ShoBox: The New Generation commentator: “If Jermain can get past nine rounds, he should win a decision. But that is a big if. Jermain has already out-boxed a great boxer in Bernard Hopkins. On paper out-boxing Kelly should be easier, but styles make fights and Kelly has so much power and confidence. I’m going to go out on a limb and go with an upset.” Taylor by decision.
Steve Farhood: ShoBox: The New Generation commentator: “Given what happened in the first fight, it is very difficult to pick Taylor in the rematch। I expect it to be another great action fight with the likely outcome being Pavlik by TKO in the middle rounds.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Bernard Fernandez, Philadelphia Daily News: “History tells me that when an undefeated fighter loses his first bout the way that Taylor did, the best course of action is to take a tune-up or two before engaging in a rematch. There also seems to be a lot of turmoil in Taylor’s camp, which makes me think he might not be ready for the rematch just yet. I’m picking Pavlik to win by 10th round TKO.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Willie Savannah, manager/trainer of lightweight champion Juan Diaz: “I keep changing my mind on who will win or how they will win. Pavlik won the first one, but you can’t forget that Jermain almost won the first one. I don’t know who the weight increase will favor, if it favors anyone at all. In a fight where everything points to a knockout, I’m going to pick Jermain to win a decision.” Taylor by decision.
Gerry Cooney, former heavyweight title challenger: “The second fight should be a way better fight than the first one, and the first one was a great one. Pavlik banged Taylor up pretty good, and when you win a title you usually improve by about 10 to 15percent. Pavlik will probably out-slug Taylor again and stop him in seven or eight rounds.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Iran Barkley, former multi-division champion: “If Taylor does what he’s supposed to do and takes care of business, he should knock Pavlik out and get his title back. He had Pavlik almost out last time, but he was not prepared mentally or physically to finish him off. The loss should bring Taylor back to earth. He knows he has to win this one, so he will do what it takes to make that happen and probably stop Pavlik in the later rounds.” Taylor by stoppage.
Sean Sullivan, editor of Boxing Digest magazine: “It’s a close fight to call, but given all of the factors I am leaning toward Pavlik by stoppage in the middle rounds. He seems to have everything in his favor. He took Taylor’s best punch and came back to win the first fight. Plus, I think the extra weight will help him more than it will help Taylor. Pavlik has shown no fear of any of his opponents, and he won’t be afraid of Taylor.” Pavlik by stoppage.
John Scully, trainer and former light heavyweight title challenger: “Taylor proved that he could hurt Pavlik in the first fight, but he didn’t prove that he could finish him. Pavlik proved that he could knock Taylor out, which is much more important than just hurting an opponent. Pavlik isn’t the type of guy to rest on his laurels and slack off. I think he’ll come back even stronger and more determined and score a late round knockout.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Bruce Silverglade, owner of Gleason’s Gym in Brooklyn, New York: “Taylor should be a lot hungrier than he was in the first fight, so he will come back and stop Pavlik by the seventh round. With better mental and physical conditioning, Taylor will bring more to this fight than Pavlik.” Taylor by stoppage.
David Selwyn: manager of female boxers Eileen Olszewski, Ronica Jeffrey and Cristy Nickle: “This fight will go longer than the first one, but Pavlik will stop him again. He will be even more confident and strong with the extra weight because he won’t have to dry out. I hear that he is already on or near weight, which is a very good sign of his conditioning and confidence. Pavlik has nothing to lose and everything to gain in this fight, while everything is on the line for Taylor.” Pavlik by stoppage.
James Moore, unbeaten Irish junior middleweight who is headlining the “Gaelic Storm” show at Madison Square Garden on March 15: “I think Taylor just might pull it off this time around. I don’t think he was in the best of condition last time, and I believe the extra six pounds will help him more than it will help Pavlik. It will be a good, tough fight, but I believe Taylor will probably stop Pavlik.” Taylor by stoppage.
Oisin Fagan: lightweight contender who is fighting on the Gaelic Storm show: “Taylor did very well against Pavlik when he was busy, but he couldn’t close the show. Pavlik is much too strong and much too confident for Taylor, especially after stopping him the first time. Pavlik will catch him with another right hand, and it will be lights out all over again within five rounds.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Mike O’Sullivan: co-owner of Celtic Gloves Promotions, which is promoting the Gaelic Storm show: “I don’t want to take anything away from what The Ghost (Pavlik) accomplished back in September, but Bad Intentions (Taylor) will redeem himself this time, with or without a belt on the line.” Taylor by stoppage.
David Wolf, former manager of world champions Ray “Boom Boom” Mancini, Donny Lalonde and Lonnie Bradley: “I have seen a marked decrease in Taylor since he let (original pro trainer) Pat Burns go. I think he actually regressed under Emanuel Steward, who is a terrific trainer but just didn’t have any chemistry with Taylor. Ozell Nelson (Taylor’s amateur trainer) has no real professional pedigree, so I think it was a mistake to go back with him. Taylor will do well early, but I expect Pavlik to come from behind and stop him around the eighth round.” Pavlik by stoppage.
Mike Silver, noted boxing historian: “Everyone is asking why Taylor took this fight so soon after being knocked out in devastating fashion. I think it is more unwise for Pavlik to take an immediate rematch. Going into the first fight, Taylor was considered the favorite and almost beat him. Taylor was totally surprised by Pavlik’s ability to take his best punch. Pavlik cannot change his style, while Taylor, who is a much better all-around fighter, can change his. While I never discount a puncher like Pavlik, I pick Taylor to stop him by the middle rounds.” Taylor by stoppage.
Eddie Mustafa Muhammad, former light heavyweight champion: “These guys fighting at the higher weight will bring out the best in both of them because they won’t have to starve themselves. This will be a similar fight to the first one, but overall a much better fight. The only who really wants it the most will win, probably by stoppage. That said, I can’t pick a winner. It’s too close to call.” No pick.
Hector Roca, trainer of, among others, Maureen Shea, “The Real Million Dollar Baby”: “Styles make fights and Taylor will go back to his old style and train with his old people. Against Pavlik the first time, he tried to change too much (under new trainer Emanuel Steward) and it failed. He will go back to doing what he does best, and score a knockout within five rounds.” Taylor by stoppage.
Teddy B. Blackburn, photographer: “Pride is more important to J.T. than any amount of money or belts. Pride will enable him to score a knockout in the eighth round.” Taylor by stoppage.
Bob Mladinich, TSS writer: As sky-high as Pavlik’s confidence must be, it seems to me that Taylor can be a lot better this time out. This fight should be a slugfest that could go either way for as long as it lasts, but I have a feeling that Taylor will prevail by scoring a mid-round stoppage. Taylor by stoppage.
Totals:21
Pavlik: 9
Taylor: 11
No pick: 1
Pavlik by stoppage: 9
Taylor by stoppage: 9
Pavlik by decision: 0
Taylor by decision: 2
Contact
Robert Mladinich @ TheSweetScience.com
